[SRI] Strategy by James Blodgett
Da: space-renaissance-initiative@googlegroups.com <space-renaissance-initiative@googlegroups.com> per conto di James Blodgett <bjames1@nycap.rr.com>
Dr. Feng Hsu and Howard Bloom have a questionable version of strategy in regard to bullies. Basically, their strategy is, if one sees a bully, clobber him. Sometimes that is appropriate. But sometimes it is a version of suicide.
Animals have evolved lots of different strategies. Some do include attack. However, many involve camouflage, and some involve running away. We are smarter than animals, so we can develop strategy rather than wait for evolution to build it into us.
Part of strategy is to assess the situation, and pick the best choice. The future is probabilistic, so we often can't be sure which choice is best, but we can usually make an educated guess. I suggest that, when on a field with bullies, a good strategy is to show both strength and the ability to apply good principles, so that even the bullies may be willing to trust us. In the Ukraine case, NATO countries are pledging to defend each other militarily, and to give help but limited help to non-NATO countries. The limited help we are giving to Ukraine includes sanctions on the Russian economy, something we can do without fighting Russia directly. Russian does sometimes call those sanctions an act of war, but they haven't bombed us yet.
Putin may use a nuclear weapon if he gets desperate. However, he has got to know that he would be crossing a line, not only with us, but with his own people. Putin can fool some Russians by claiming that Ukrainians are Nazis, but he won't be able to hide the fact that he presided over a situation that went nuclear, and some of his people would guess that he pushed the button. Dictators have to fear both their enemies and their citizens.
Part of our motivation for settling space is to back up our species so that we don't have to rely on one planet. That is a version of running away, but it would be a good strategy if we can make it work.